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NEW QUESTION # 16
Which of the following statements are true:
I. It is usual to set a very high confidence level when estimating VaR for capital requirements.
II. For model validation, very high VaR confidence levels are used to minimize excess losses.
III. For limit setting for managing day to day positions, it is usual to set VaR confidence levels that are neither too low to be exceeded too often, nor too high as to be never exceeded.
IV. The Basel accord requirements for market risk capital require the use of a time horizon of 1 year.
- A. I and IV
- B. II and III
- C. III and IV
- D. I and III
Answer: D
Explanation:
This questions deals with the appropriate levels of the holding period and confidence levels for VaR estimates. These depend upon the use the VaR estimate is intended to be put to - so when calculating VaR levels for capital requirements, or for maintaining credit ratings, very high levels of confidence are generally used. On the contrary, when setting limits or validating a model, a few excess loss situations are not only acceptable but actually desirable, and therefore lower levels of confidence are used.When it comes to the holding period, that may be mandated, as it is under Basel II as being a 10 day period. For other cases, it may be a horizon roughly corresponding to a period in which positions may be liquidated in an orderly day, which could be just one day for highly liquid markets, or a week or more for larger positions in illiquid markets.
Therefore statements I and III are true and the others are false. Therefore the only correct answer is Choice 'b'.
NEW QUESTION # 17
The sensitivity (delta) of a portfolio to a single point move in the value of the S&P500 is $100. If the current level of the S&P500 is 2000, and has a one day volatility of 1%, what is the value-at-risk for this portfolio at the 99% confidence and a horizon of 10 days? What is this method of calculating VaR called?
- A. $14,736, parametric VaR
- B. $4,660, Monte Carlo simulation VaR
- C. $14,736, historical simulation VaR
- D. $4,660, parametric VaR
Answer: A
Explanation:
If the current level of the S&P 500 is 2000, and a single day volatility is 1%, and the delta (ie change in portfolio value from a one point change) is $100, then the 1 day volatility for the portfolio in dollars is 2000 *
1% * $100 = $2,000.
At the 99% confidence level, the value of the inverse cumulative density function for the normal distribution is 2.33 (=NORMSINV(99%), in Excel). Therefore the 1 day VaR will be 2.33 * $2000 = $4,660. Extending it to 10 days using the square root of time rule, we get the 10 day VaR as equal to SQRT(10)*4660 = $14,736.
Since this method of calculating VaR relies upon a delta approximation of a risk factor (in this case the S&P500), it is the parametric approach to calculating VaR (the other methods being historical simulation, and Monte Carlo simulation).
The 2015 Handbook provides an excellent example of parametric (and other) VaR calculations in Chapter 3 of Volume III of Book 3. The spreadsheet used for the illustration can be downloadedfrom
http://www.prmia.org/prm-exam/handbook-resources.
NEW QUESTION # 18
Which of the following are measures of liquidity risk
I. Liquidity Coverage Ratio
II. Net Stable Funding Ratio
III. Book Value to Share Price
IV. Earnings Per Share
- A. I and II
- B. I and IV
- C. II and III
- D. III and IV
Answer: A
Explanation:
In December 2009 the BIS came out with a new consultative document on liquidity risk. Given the events of
2007 - 2009, it has been clear that a key characteristic of the financial crisis was the inaccurate and ineffective management of liquidity risk The paper two separate but complementary objectives in respect of liquidity risk management: The first objective relates to the short-term liquidity risk profile of institution, and the second objective is to promote resiliency over longer-term time horizons. The paper identifies the following two ratios - you should be aware of these - though I am not sure if these will show up in the PRMIA exam:
1. Liquidity Coverage Ratio addresses the ability of an institution to survive an acute liquidity risk stress scenario lasting one month. It is calculated as follows:
Liquidity Coverage Ratio = Stock of high quality liquid assets/Net cash outflows over a 30-day time period
2. Net Stable Funding Ratio has been developed to capture structural issues related to funding choices.
Net Stable Funding Ratio = Available amount of stable funding/Required amount of stable funding Both ratios should be equal to or greater than 1. The statement contains detailed definitions of what is included or excluded from each of the terms used in the calculations for each of the ratios. In addition, the standard also describes the what the 'acute' scenario should include (things such as a 3 notch credit downgrade, reduction in retail deposits etc) Therefore Choice 'b' is the correct answer. Book Value to Share Price and Earnings Per Share are accounting measures unrelated to liquidity.
NEW QUESTION # 19
Which of the following statements is true in relation to collateral management?
I. A collateral management system need not consider the failure by counterparties to returncollateral when due II. The extent to which counterparties may have rehypothecated collateral is not a consideration for a collateral management system III. Cash is an acceptable substitute for any type of collateral required to be posted IV. Haircuts do not apply to treasury issued instruments posted as collateral
- A. None of the statements is true
- B. I, II and III
- C. I, II, III and IV
- D. II and III
Answer: A
Explanation:
Strong management of collateral, both receivable and payable, is emerging as an area requiring significant investment by financial institutions and asset managers in IT infrastructures and business processes. A bank needs to make collateral calls daily, based upon the P&L of the previous day, and likewise receives collateral calls from its counterparties. Just like cash, a bank needs to make sure that it does not run out of collateral to post when a call is received. Interestingly, based upon the agreements between banks and their mutual understanding, only certain types of instruments often qualify as valid collateral - and in such cases even cash is not acceptable if the right type of bond or other agreed security is not available to post. The operational challenges of managing collateral increase manifold due to 'rehypothecation', ie when collateral received from one counterparty gets posted out as collateral where it is due. In such cases, the bank should have the mechanisms to receive the right assets back in a timely way in case rehypothecated assets are to be returned.
The systems should be able to deal with delays, failures without impacting the ability of the bank to post collateral as needed. All of this requires major investments in IT and processes.
Statement I is not true as a bank is bound to post collateral to third parties when needed regardless of the failure of its counterparties to post collateral to it when owed. In the markets, failures by counterparties can and do happen, and a collateral management system needs to account for and keep a buffer for the fact that some collateral when due will not be received.
Statement II is not true as rehypothecation by counterparties of collateral posted increases the chances of the collateral not being received in time. The system should consider the need for liquidity to generate assets that can be posted as collateral when others have failed to return the collateral in a timely way.
Statement III is not correct as cash may not be acceptable to counterparties as collateral. From a practical point of view, they may not have the infrastructure to receive and account for cash as collateral. A Swiss bank, for example, may have an 'account' to receive US t-bills as collateral but may not even have a US dollar account to receive cash. Even if it did, the volumes of transactions going back and forth may make tracking and reconciliations impossible. Thus a bank should always make sure that it has the right type of collateral available to post.
Statement IV is incorrect as well, as treasury issued instruments are also subject to haircuts. Their value also fluctuates in response to changes in yields, and therefore they are subject to haircuts as well.
Thus none of the statements are correct and Choice 'd' is the correct answer.
NEW QUESTION # 20
For a 10 year interest rate swap, what would be the worst time for a counterparty to default (in terms of the maximum likely credit exposure)
- A. Right after inception
- B. 2 years
- C. 7 years
- D. 10 years
Answer: C
Explanation:
Right after inception' is incorrect as the interest rate swap (IRS) would be valued at close to zero right after inception and the credit risk would be minimum. Choice 'a' (ie 10 years, at maturity) is incorrect as at maturity there would be no more cash flows to exchange, and the replacement value of the contract would again be close to zero.
Therefore the worst time for the counterparty to default is somewhere between inception andmaturity - in fact the range of possible outcomes for the contract increases with the passage of time, and we should find the worst time to default to be a later date. However, towards maturity, the value of the contract starts to go towards zero again, and the maximum value is reached around 7 years. 2 years is too early for the maximum to be reached for the 10 year IRS, and therefore choice a is the correct answer.
NEW QUESTION # 21
Which of the following is a most complete measure of the liquidity gap facing a firm?
- A. Cumulative liquidity gap
- B. Marginal liquidity gap
- C. Residual liquidity gap
- D. Liquidity at Risk
Answer: C
Explanation:
Marginal liquidity gap measures the expected net change in liquidity over, say, a day. It is just equal to the liquidity inflow minus liquidity outflow. The cumulative liquidity gap measures the aggregate change in liquidity from a point in time, in other words it is just the summation of the marginal liquidity gap for each of the days included in the period under consideration. The residual liquidity gap goes one step further and adds available 'opening balance' of liquidity to the cumulative liquidity gap to reveal the days or times when the net liquidity is most at risk.
Liquidity at Risk measures the expected time to survival at a certain confidence level applied to the firm's cash flows - and is not a measure of the liquidity gap.
Therefore Choice 'a' is the correct answer.
NEW QUESTION # 22
For a bank using the advanced measurement approach to measuring operational risk, which of the following brings the greatest 'model risk' to its estimates:
- A. Choice of incorrect parameters for loss severity distributions
- B. Insufficient number of simulations when building the loss distribution
- C. Aggregation risk, from selecting an incorrect value of estimated correlations between different operational risk estimates
- D. Choice of an incorrect distribution for loss event frequencies
Answer: C
Explanation:
The greatest model risk when calculating operational risk capital comes from incorrect assumptions about correlations between different operational risks for which standalone risk calculations have been made.
Generally, the correlation can be expected to be positive, and would therefore vary between 0 and 1. These two values determine the 'bounds' between which the total operational risk capital would lie, and these bounds are generally quite far apart. Therefore the total value of the operational risk capital is very sensitive to the value chosen for the correlation, and this is the source of the biggest model risk under the AMA.
NEW QUESTION # 23
Which of the following represents a riskier exposure for a bank: A LIBOR based loan, or an Overnight Indexed Swap? Which of the two rates is expected to be higher?
Assume the same counterparty and the same notional.
- A. A LIBOR based loan; OIS rate will be higher
- B. Overnight Index Swap; LIBOR rate will be higher
- C. Overnight Index Swap; OIS rate will be higher
- D. A LIBOR based loan; LIBOR rate will be higher
Answer: D
Explanation:
A LIBOR based loan requires cash to move from the lender to the borrower in the amount of the notional. The Overnight Index Swap requires only the exchange of interest payments, and therefore represents less risk.
Therefore the LIBOR based loan is a riskier exposure.
The LIBOR is generally higher than the OIS. In fact, the difference between the two, the LIBOR-OIS spread, is a standard measure of the risk premium in the market that goes up when the risk of default by counterparty banks is considered high. This is because when the market perceives the risk of default to be high, the participants need a risk premium to take on the default risk which is considerably lesser with the OIS.
NEW QUESTION # 24
Under the standardized approach to calculating operational risk capital under Basel II, negative regulatory capital charges for any of the business units:
- A. Should be excluded from capital calculations
- B. Should be included after ignoring the negative sign
- C. Should be ignored completely
- D. Should be offset against positive capital charges from other business units
Answer: D
Explanation:
According to Basel II, in any given year, negative capital charges (resulting from negative gross income) in any business line may offset positive capital charges in other business lines without limit. Therefore Choice 'b' is the correct answer.
NEW QUESTION # 25
Loss from a lawsuit from an employee due to physical harm caused while at work is categorized per Basel II as:
- A. Damage to physical assets
- B. Employment practices and workplace safety
- C. Unsafe working environment
- D. Execution delivery and process management
Answer: B
Explanation:
Choice 'a' is the correct answer. Refer to the detailed loss event type classification under Basel II (see Annex 9 of the accord). You should know the exact names of all loss event types, and examples of each.
NEW QUESTION # 26
Which of the following best describes a 'break clause ?
- A. A break clause determines the process by which amounts due on early termination will be determined
- B. A break clause gives either party to a transaction the right to terminate the transaction at market price at future date(s)
- C. A break clause sets out the conditions under which the transaction will be terminated upon non- compliance with the ISDA MA
- D. A break clause describes rights and obligations when the derivative contract is broken
Answer: B
Explanation:
A break close, also called a 'mutual put', gives either party the right to terminate a transaction at market price at a given date, or dates in the future. These are usually availed of in longer dated transactions, eg 10 years and over. For example, a 15-year swap might have a mutual put in year 5, and every 2 years thereafter.
All other choices are incorrect.
NEW QUESTION # 27
Which of the following statements is true in respect of different approaches to calculating VaR?
I. Linear or parametric VaR does not take correlations into account
II. For large portfolios with little or no optionality or other non-linear attributes, parametric VaR is an efficient approach to calculating VaR III. For large portfolios with complex sources of risk and embedded optionalities, the full revaluation method of calculating VaR should be preferred IV. Delta normal local revaluation based VaR is suitable for fixed income and option portfolios only
- A. I and IV
- B. II and III
- C. I, II, III and IV
- D. III only
Answer: B
Explanation:
This question is different in that it uses terminology you will not find in the PRMIA handbook. Yet it is important to understand these as there may be a question based on this slightly different terminology. (It is only the terminology that is different, the concepts are the same.) If you read the PRMIA handbook, there are three methods of calculating VaR: Analytical or parametric, historical simulation and Monte Carlo simulations. There is one more way of categorizing the methods of calculating VaR, and these are as follows:
1. Local valuation: This refers to analytical or parametric VaR. This relies upon a neat statistical formula to calculate VaR and assumes a normal distribution. It also relies upon a known covariance matrix between the different components of VaR. Local valuation based VaR is further subdivided into two types:
a. Linear VaR: Linear VaR is calculated assuming the portfolio is linear, and its value changes just based upon the delta of the portfolio. In such cases, once a change (eg, in stock values) is known, that change is multiplied by the delta alone to get the VaR. Second order effects, such as gamma or convexity are ignored.
b. Non-linear VaR: Non linear analytical VaR is calculated using both delta and the second derivative, ie gamma or the convexity. This is more accurate if the portfolio is non-linear.
The key thing about 'local revaluation' VaR is that it does not require us to reprice or completely value all instruments in the portfolio. All we have to know is the delta (or the gamma and convexity as well) and multiply that with the number of standard deviations of change in the risk factor that we are interested in. So if we are considering a bond, we don't have to recalculate the new value of the bond as we can just use the delta. This can be a significant computational advantage for a large financial institution where there may be a large number of positions.
2. Full revaluation: This refers to a VaR method where the asset in question is fully repriced based on the new value of the risk factor - and this includes both historical and Monte Carlo based VaR methods.
Local revaluation, or analytical method based VaR is computationally easier to calculate, specially if based on just the delta-normal method (ie ignoring second order effects from convexity or gamma). But it will give incorrect results if the portfolio includes substantial non-linearity or other complexities. The full revaluation methods will always give the correct results, but they can be computationally difficult to arrive at.
Statement I is completely inaccurate - local revaluation methods do take correlations into account through the correlation or covariance matrices. Statement IV is false too - the 'delta normal' VaR refers to Var calculations based upon just the delta and do not account for the convexity or optionality. Statements II and III are correct.
Therefore Choice 'c' is the correct answer.
NEW QUESTION # 28
When compared to a low severity high frequency risk, the operational risk capital requirement for a medium severity medium frequency risk is likely to be:
- A. Higher
- B. Unaffected by differences in frequency or severity
- C. Lower
- D. Zero
Answer: A
Explanation:
High frequency and low severity risks, for example the risks of fraud losses for a credit card issuer, may have high expected losses, but low unexpected losses. In other words, we can generally expect these losses to stay within a small expected and known range. The capital requirement will be the worst case losses at a given confidence level less expected losses, and in such cases this can be expected to be low.
On the other hand, medium severity medium frequency risks, such as the risks of unexpected legal claims, 'fat- finger' trading errors, will have low expected losses but a high level of unexpected losses. Thus the capital requirement for such risks will be high.
It is also worthwhile mentioning high severity and low frequency risks - for example a rogue trader circumventing all controls and bringing the bank down, or a terrorist strike or natural disaster creating other losses - will probably have zero expected losses & high unexpected losses but only at very high levels of confidence. In other words, operational risk capital is unlikely to provide for such events and these would lie in the part of the tail that is not covered by most levels of confidence when calculating operational risk capital.
Note that risk capital is required for only unexpected losses as expected losses are to be borne by P&L reserves. Therefore the operational risk capital requirements for a low severity high frequency risk is likely to be low when compared to other risks that are lower frequency but higher severity.
Thus Choice 'c' is the correct answer.
NEW QUESTION # 29
Which of the following statements is true?
I. Real Time Gross Systems (RTGS) for large value payments consume less system liquidity than Deferred Net Systems (DNS) II. The US Fedwire is an example of a Real Time Gross System III. Current disclosure requirements in relation to liquidity risk as laid down in the Basel framework require banks to disclose how liquidity stress scenarios were formulated IV. A CFP (Contingency Funding Plan) provides access to Central Bank financing
- A. I and III
- B. II and IV
- C. I, II, III and IV
- D. II
Answer: D
Explanation:
The correct answer is choice 'd'
For settlement of interbank payments, there are broadly two kinds of systems: RTGS (Real TimeGross Systems) and Deferred Net Systems (DNS). RTGS process payments in real time, settlement by settlement, and each transaction is settled by the a clearing institution (mostly the central bank) on a gross basis without regard for other settlements affecting the counterparty. DNS systems, on the other hand, allow for debiting or crediting the accounts of counterparties at periodic intervals after netting all payments paid or received since the last settlement. The exact timing of the payments does not matter so long as a bank has sufficient funding on a net basis at settlement time. Implicit in the DNS system is the extension of credit and liquidity by the central bank to the participating banks as it is possible for a bank to issue payment instructions even without having funds so long as they can arrange for such funds prior to settlement at the end of the day. In RTGS, a bank needs to have funds to make a payment at any point, and cannot make a payment against moneys expected to be received later intra-day. RTGS systems therefore need more liquidity on the part of the participants, and consume far more liquidity than DNS arrangements. Of course, the 'liquidity' of the DNS arrangement has a cost - which is that someone is taking up settlement risk, and invariably it is the central bank. If a bank under DNS fails to settle, its transactions have to be 'unwound', ie all payments made by it have to be rolled back. This can cause other banks to trip, causing further unwinding transactions. RTGS systems do not carry this risk. Therefore statement I is not correct as RTGS consume more liquidity than DNS arrangements.
Statement II is correct. US Fedwire or European TARGET are RTGS while CHIPS is a DNS based payment system.
Statement III is not correct. Current Basel requirements do not require any disclosure in respect of liquidity risk management. A consultative paper was issued by BIS in Dec 2009 for comments from members, but it is far from final. The BIS is still reacting to the liquidity issues that arose during the 2007-09 credit crisis.
Statement IV is not correct as a CFP is like a disaster recovery plan for liquidity, ie it helps a bank plan for and think about what steps would be taken to deal with a liquidity disaster situation. It does not provide any access to central bank financing.
NEW QUESTION # 30
Under the internal ratings based approach for risk weighted assets, for which of the following parameters must each institution make internal estimates (as opposed to relying upon values determined by a national supervisor):
- A. Effective maturity
- B. Loss given default
- C. Probability of default
- D. Exposure at default
Answer: C
Explanation:
Regardless of the approach being followed by a bank (ie, whether foundation IRB or advanced IRB), it must make its own estimates for the probability of default. Banks following the foundation IRB approach may use values set by the supervisor for the other three parameters, though those following the advanced IRB approach may use their own estimates for all four inputs. (This is also the difference between advanced IRB and the foundation IRB approaches.) Therefore Choice 'a' is the correct answer.
Also note the four difference elements that go as inputs to the internal ratings based approach in the choices provided.
NEW QUESTION # 31
For a loan portfolio, expected losses are charged against:
- A. Economic credit capital
- B. Credit reserves
- C. Regulatory capital
- D. Economic capital
Answer: B
Explanation:
Credit reserves are created in respect of expected losses, which are considered the cost of doing business.
Unexpected losses are borne by economic credit capital, which is a part of economic capital. Therefore Choice 'c' is the correct answer.
NEW QUESTION # 32
If the annual default hazard rate for a borrower is 10%, what is the probability that there is no default at the end of 5 years?
- A. 59.05%
- B. 39.35%
- C. 50.00%
- D. 60.65%
Answer: D
Explanation:
A default hazard rate is the rate of default in a continuous time setting. This question is asking for probability of survival at the end of 5 years. The formula to calculate the probability of survival at the end of t years where the default hazard rate is#is e^(-#*t) (or in Excel, =exp(-#*t). Therefore the correct answer is Choice 'd'.
(It may be tempting to infer that if the probability of survival at the end of 1 year is 90% (1 - 10%), then the probability of survival in 5 years would be 90%^5. However this reasoning is not correct for the reason that the given rate is not the discrete rate of default, but the hazard rate which is nothing but the continuously compounded rate of default.)
NEW QUESTION # 33
Which of the following credit risk models focuses on default alone and ignores credit migration when assessing credit risk?
- A. The contingent claims approach
- B. The CreditMetrics approach
- C. CreditPortfolio View
- D. The actuarial approach
Answer: D
Explanation:
The correct answer is Choice 'd'. The following is a brief description of the major approaches available to model credit risk, and the analysis that underlies them:
1. CreditMetrics: based on the credit migration framework. Considers the probability of migration to other credit ratings and the impact of such migrations on portfolio value.
2. CreditPortfolio View: similar to CreditMetrics, but adds the impact of the business cycle to the evaluation.
3. The contingent claims approach: uses option theory by considering a debt as a put option on the assets of the firm.
4. KMV's EDF (expected default frequency) based approach: relies on EDFs and distance to default as a measure of credit risk.
5. CreditRisk+: Also called the 'actuarial approach', considers default as a binary event that either happens or does not happen. This approach does not consider the loss of value from deterioration in credit quality (unless the deterioration implies default).
NEW QUESTION # 34
A stock that follows the Weiner process has its future price determined by:
- A. its current price, expected return and standard deviation
- B. its expected return and standard deviation
- C. its expected return alone
- D. its standard deviation and past technical movements
Answer: A
Explanation:
The change in the price of a security that follows a Weiner process is determined by its standard deviation and expected return. To get the price itself, we need to add this change in price to the current price. Therefore the future price in a Weiner process is determined by all three of current price, expected return and standard deviation.
NEW QUESTION # 35
Under the ISDA MA, which of the following terms best describes the netting applied upon the bankruptcy of a party?
- A. Closeout netting
- B. Multilateral netting
- C. Payment netting
- D. Chapter 11
Answer: A
Explanation:
Netting is the ability to set just the net balances when amounts are both owed and due. Netting can take many forms. Payment netting is netting between counterparties that owe moneys to each other in the same currency under the same transaction (or master agreement). Closeout netting is when parties settle a net amount for the value of all outstanding transactions upon the occurrence of an event of default such as bankruptcy.
Multiateral netting involves a third party that sets off exposuresacross counterparties that owe moneys to each other.
Closeout netting under the ISDA master agreement enables a party to terminate transactions early if an Event of Default or Termination Event occurs in respect of the other party. It involves the calculation and netting of the termination values of all transactions to produce a single amount payable between the parties. Closeout netting is therefore the correct answer.
NEW QUESTION # 36
......
The Professional Risk Managers' International Association (PRMIA) is a non-profit organization that offers globally recognized certifications in risk management. The PRMIA 8011 (Credit and Counterparty Manager (CCRM) Certificate) Certification Exam is designed to validate the knowledge and skills of professionals in the field of credit and counterparty risk management. 8011 exam covers a wide range of topics, including credit analysis, credit risk mitigation, counterparty risk management, and regulatory compliance.
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